So the #NeverTrump forces, when all was said and done, only managed to get 18.75% of delegates to ask for the unbinding clause.
Isn’t that a decent starting point for how many Republicans might abandon Donald Trump this fall?
Assume that these are hyper-factional folk. i.e. pro-Cruz or pro-Kasich. At most, then, isn’t 18.9% the absolute highest defection rate we could see? Because those 18.75% defecting, were defecting, in their mind, in favor of Cruz or Kasich.
This fall, though, they’d be defecting for Hillary. So I’ll say 5% of the 18.75% might do that.
Another 10% might defect to Johnson, the Libertarian.
Another 15% might refuse to vote.
That totals 30% of 18.75%. So let’s call it 6%. I deduce that 6% of traditional GOP voters will refuse to vote for Donald Trump.
Juxtapose that 6% attrition, against:
- Turnout gains and enthusiasm in favor of Trump i.e. the Obama effect.
- Democratic turnout loss because Democrats are missing an Obama on the ticket. Democratic turnout was down 25% from 2008.
- Democratic turnout loss because of the “ick” factor of Hillary Clinton.
Finally, it generally seems to me that Trump has endured carpet-bombing attack from the media for 12 months. As a result, he has high negatives. But as a result, I think we’ve hit Peak Trump negatives.
There isn’t anyone left to turn anti-Trump; 12 months of relentless media carpet bombing has had its effect. There isn’t a single additional anti-Trump person to be harvested; the field is picked clean. From now until November, people will be exposed to Trump, and his negatives can only remain static, or decrease.
Hillary, on the other hand, has received fawning mainstream media coverage. Kid gloves treatment. We are at Peak Hillary likeability. There isn’t any additional pro-Hillary person to be found. Her negatives are still quite high, without media carpetbombing.
She earned those all by herself. Critically, with ample ammunition remaining (continuing Clinton scandals) and Trump’s evidenced ability to break through the protective media barrier around Hillary, when voters are exposed to Hillary, via Trump’s cut-through, her negatives will increase. We have not seen Peak Hillary negatives.
So with Trump having hit Peak Negative, and Hillary likely to experience increasing negatives, I just don’t see how Hillary can increase her standing in the polls. It’s all turnout now, and per the above, I don’t see turnout in any way helping Hillary.
Of course, exogenous shocks may change things, but those are likely to mean terrorist attacks or street violence. Those would seem to help Trump. Trump is the national security candidate. He is the law and order candidate.
I’ve thought for several months that Trump might win the popular vote handily. The past 10 days have tended to bring things in that direction, especially because it seemed impossible to most just a month ago.
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